Sales of new trucks in 2021 jumped by 38%

In 2021 100,196 medium-tonnage and heavy trucks were sold in Russia. It follows from the calculations of “Autostat Info” based on vehicle registration data. This is 38% more than the sales in the pandemic year 2020, and 21% more than in the pre-epidemic year 2019.

Heavy trucks (more than 16 tons) make up the major part of the market. According to Kamaz, about 77,000 units of such trucks were sold in 2021. But the absolute leader of sales in the cargo segment is the medium-tonnage model of the GAZ group "Gazon Next". In 2021, 8,159 units of “Gazon” were sold, which is 28% more than in 2020. With a minimum margin, then follow sales of the “Kamaz 43118” heavy truck – 8,115 units (+25% by 2020). The rest of the top sales are also occupied by Kamaz products: the “5490 tractor trucks” (8020 units +45%) is in 3rd place, the “65115 dump truck” (7274 units, +33%) is in fourth place, the “6520 dump truck” (4299 units, +21%) closes the top five.

The first foreign model – the Mercedes Actros truck- tractor - is in 6th place with a result of 3,955 cars sold (+31%). Volvo FH, Ural 4320, DAF XF and MAN TGX were also among the top ten sales leaders in 2021.

Of the automakers, “Kamaz” remained the absolute leader in all types of trucks. Its sales in 2021 increased by 29% to 36,394 units, according to Autostat Info. The company forecasts sales growth of 19% in 2021 to 44,000 units, including exports, “Kamaz” CEO Mr.Sergey Kogogin told reporters in December 2021. In 2022, Kamaz is going to sell 45,000 cars: 39,000 in Russia, another 6,000 for export, Kogogin noted.

GAZ Group is in 2nd place among automakers, its sales by registrations amounted to 10,230 units, which is 28% more than in 2020. This is followed by Scania – 7,341 cars (+52%), Volvo – 5,991 units (+61%) and MAN – 4,849 units (+35%). The top 10 market leaders also included Ural, Mercedes, MAZ, Isuzu and Chinese Shaanxi.

Foreign brands in 2021 were generally characterized by higher growth dynamics compared to domestic manufacturers, but with much smaller sales volumes per brand. Sales of Russian trucks as a whole for the year increased by 30% to 56,212 units, foreign - by 49% to 43,984 units, follows from the data of "Autostat info".

The growth of the heavy truck market in 2021 was caused by the deferred demand, the launch of infrastructure projects and the growth of housing construction, says a representative of Kamaz.

"In 2022, we expect that the market will remain the same. And if it grows, then not much. Demand is mostly satisfied, no new infrastructure projects are planned yet. The market is more or less saturated," says a representative of Kamaz.

The growth rate of the Russian market of medium-tonnage trucks was about 14%: 14,000 cars in 2021, 12,300 - in 2020, a representative of the GAZ group told Vedomosti. To the greatest extent, the growth of the market was provided by the segments of retail trade, logistics and special equipment for housing and communal services, he explains. According to the company, the share of GAZ cars in the segment of medium-duty trucks in 2020-2021 amounted to 67-69%. "The increase in the share is caused by the entry into a new segment for us - cabless urban trucks ("Valdai Next"), as well as the expansion of demand for our main model - "Gazon Next" - from intercity transportation services and e-commerce," the manager of the company GAZ explained. “Gazon” trucks are not subject to the “Plato” tariff for driving on federal highways, since they weigh less than 12 tons. It is now 2.35 rubles per kilometer, but should increase to 2.44 rubles from February 1, 2022. This makes "Gazon" more attractive for small and medium-sized businesses with the need for long-distance transportation of food and consumer goods.

GAZ Group's baseline forecast for the medium-tonnage truck market for 2022 is an increase of 7%. GAZ’ sales will increase stronger than the market due to further growth in the segment of cabless trucks and expansion of the line of special equipment, primarily for the housing and utilities segment, based on "Valdai Next", the representative of the company believes.

Last year, the commercial equipment market recovered much better than the passenger car segment, says Vladimir Bespalov, an analyst at VTB Capital (bank). According to him, this was facilitated by the effect of a relatively low base, the general economic recovery and the fact that manufacturers of commercial equipment were less affected by the shortage of microchips. According to the estimates of the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov, GDP growth in Russia by the end of 2021 will be 4.4-4.5%.

In the second half of 2021, the market of new passenger cars faced a shortage of electronic components: their manufacturers could not keep up with the demand from automakers. Despite a sharp increase in sales at the beginning of the year, sales of cars have been falling since the summer. As a result, sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) in Russia, according to the Association of European Businesses, in 2021 increased by only 4.3% compared to the level of 2020 to 1.67 million units. But the cargo segment was affected to a lesser extent. Mr. Kogogin, in a September interview with Vedomosti, said that the automaker, in anticipation of a shortage, had made a stock of microchips. Nevertheless, in September, GAZ Group began temporarily releasing incomplete cars to the warehouse due to a shortage of components (Vedomosti reported about this on September 10).

The market for medium-tonnage trucks remains small, its recovery was facilitated by the development of trade and agriculture. The growth of the segment in 2022 will slow down, the expert is sure. The effect of a high base will be affected, the main part of the recovery growth of the economy took place in 2021. But even if there are no problems with the supply of components, the truck market will still grow faster than the passenger car segment. Sales of passenger cars, according to the experts’ calculations, in 2022 will remain at the level of 2021.

By 2022, demand will slow down, but the segment will still grow faster than the segment of passenger cars.